| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 5:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on March 26, 2026. The outcome matters to people and businesses scheduling outdoor activities, energy providers managing demand, and anyone tracking seasonal weather shifts.
Late March is a transitional period in the Northeast when conditions can swing from unseasonably cold to mild spring warmth; synoptic-scale systems still produce fast changes in temperature. Local factors such as cloud cover, onshore winds from the Atlantic, and any remaining snow cover can alter afternoon readings at specific observation sites.
Market prices reflect the consensus of traders incorporating model runs, observations, and news; they are a real-time signal of collective expectations, not a guaranteed forecast. Prices may change as new weather model data and on-the-ground observations arrive in the days and hours before the target time.
The market will resolve to the specific data source named in the event rules; consult the event description for the designated station or reporting network (for example, an official NWS/NOAA station such as Central Park, LaGuardia, or another listed site).
Close and resolution times are set by the event rules on the platform; the official outcome is determined using the observation recorded at 5:00 PM EDT for the designated station and any verification window specified by the market's resolution policy.
Forecast model runs (e.g., successive global and regional cycles) and short-term nowcasting (radar/satellite) drive updates: as the event approaches, newer model outputs and observations reduce uncertainty and typically shift market prices to reflect the latest guidance.
The event time is specified in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), which corresponds to UTC−4 during daylight saving periods; if you need UTC, add four hours to convert 5:00 PM EDT to 21:00 UTC, and always confirm time-zone handling in the event rules.
Late March often shows high variability: warm spring days can follow cold air intrusions, and late-season snow or frost events remain possible though less frequent; traders should consider recent trends, short-term model forecasts, and the presence or absence of factors like snow cover and persistent cloudiness when evaluating this event.