| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 5:00 AM EDT on March 26, 2026. It matters for short-term planning (transport, energy load, outdoor events) and as a focused test of how well forecasts and market expectations track a single, time‑specific observation.
Late March in New York City is a transitional period with frequent swings between mild and chilly conditions; variability is driven by the arrival of springtime frontal systems and the urban/coastal setting. This market is a single-point, time‑specific forecast with seven discrete outcomes, so small changes in temperature or in how the observation is defined can shift which outcome wins.
Market prices reflect the collective view of traders about which outcome is most likely at the target time and update as new observations and model runs arrive. Use prices as a real‑time indicator of consensus, not as definitive certainty about the final observation.
Settlement uses the official data source and station specified by the exchange in the market rules or contract terms. If the market page does not name a station or dataset, consult the exchange's settlement policy or contact support to confirm which official instrument (e.g., a specific NWS/NOAA station) will determine the result.
Each outcome corresponds to a discrete temperature bin or labeled value defined on the market page; outcome labels indicate the numeric ranges and whether endpoints are inclusive. Check the market description for exact bin boundaries and rounding rules before trading.
The market lists a close time as TBD; the exchange typically sets a trading cutoff prior to settlement and finalizes settlement after the official 5:00 AM observation becomes available. Review the market page for updates on the close time and the exchange's published settlement timeline.
New model runs, surface observations, satellite imagery, and airport METARs provide updated evidence about the synoptic setup and overnight conditions; traders incorporate those updates, so market expectations can move materially as forecasts converge or diverge in the days and hours before the event.
Exchanges have fallback and dispute procedures—common approaches include using the nearest valid observation in time from the designated station, an alternate official station, or a published backup dataset. Consult the exchange's settlement and dispute rules for the exact procedure that will apply to this market.