| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the observed air temperature in New York City will be at 4:00 PM EDT on March 26, 2026; it matters for traders, energy managers, event planners, and anyone hedging weather-related exposure tied to that specific time.
Late March is a transitional period in the northeastern U.S., so temperatures can swing between cool and mild depending on the passage of storms and the position of air masses. Short-term outcomes are driven by synoptic-scale systems and local coastal/urban effects, while long-term climate trends shift seasonal baselines over years and decades.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation about which outcome will match the official measurement at the designated station and time; they update as forecasts, observations, and model guidance evolve.
Settlement follows the exchange's resolution rules: the official reading will be taken from the data source specified in the contract (for example an NWS hourly observation or a METAR) and recorded at or nearest to 4:00 PM EDT; the market's resolution text states the exact source and procedure.
The contract must specify a primary station or data source; if a station is not named in the contract text, the exchange will declare the source in the resolution rules or settlement notice—check the market page or contact exchange support for the definitive station.
Close times are set by the exchange and vary by market; many weather contracts close shortly before the observation time to prevent trading on the imminent measurement, so confirm the listed close time on this market's page.
Use a combination: global ensemble systems (ECMWF, GFS) for synoptic trend and uncertainty, high-resolution models (HRRR, rapid-refresh systems, NAM) for mesoscale timing, plus NWS forecasts, METAR trends, satellite, and radar for near-term adjustments.
Coastal proximity and sea-breeze timing, urban heat island effects, small-scale boundaries or frontal timing within the metro area, cloud development or clearing, and recent precipitation or snow cover can all produce local departures from broader regional forecasts.