| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be on March 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT. It matters for traders and hedgers who use short-term weather outcomes to manage risk or express views about near-term conditions in NYC.
Late March in New York is a transitional period: temperatures can swing between winter-like cold and milder spring warmth depending on synoptic weather patterns. Longer-term climate trends have nudged seasonal averages upward, but the exact temperature at a single hour is driven primarily by the immediate atmospheric setup and local factors.
Market prices reflect collective expectations for which temperature outcome will settle; use them as a summary of available information rather than a definitive forecast. Always check the market’s settlement definition (data source, station, averaging and rounding rules) before interpreting results.
The market’s settlement rules on the platform name the authoritative data source and station; consult the event page or official settlement documentation to see which observing site and instrument (and any vendor such as NWS/NOAA) will be used.
The event page lists the market close time (shown as TBD for this listing); resolution typically occurs after the official 4:00 AM EDT observation is published and after any platform-specified delay—check the market details for exact close and settlement timing.
The outcome whose defined range contains the official reported temperature at 4:00 AM EDT wins, subject to the platform’s rounding and tie-breaking rules; read the settlement definition to see exact bin boundaries and how edge cases are handled.
Short-range forecasts (especially 0–3 days) and high-resolution model runs plus local observations provide the most useful information for a specific hour; at longer leads, skill decreases and climatology and larger-scale trends become more influential.
The event explicitly specifies 4:00 AM EDT; settlement will follow the platform’s stated timezone conventions. Confirm on the event page whether the provider reports times in local standard time, UTC, or EDT and how any conversions are handled.