| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 3:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on March 26, 2026. It matters as a short-term weather outcome that can affect energy demand, outdoor events, and serve as a real-time test of forecasting models.
Late March is a transitional period in the northeastern U.S., so temperatures can swing depending on the presence of cold air masses, coastal influences, or early-season warm spells. Urban factors such as the heat island and the choice of official observing station can produce notable differences between nearby sites. This specific market lists seven discrete outcomes and the market close time is listed as TBD on the event page.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of traders about which temperature range will be observed at the specified time and location; they summarize available model guidance and observations but are not a guaranteed forecast.
The designated official source and observing station used to settle the market are specified in the event rules on the platform; check the event page for the exact named station and data source.
Each outcome maps to a predefined temperature range or bucket listed on the event page; review the outcome labels there to see the exact boundaries.
Settlement fallback procedures are defined in the market rules—platforms commonly use the nearest available hourly official observation or a specified NWS preliminary product; consult the event rules for the precise fallback.
Unless the event rules explicitly state otherwise, settlement uses ambient air temperature as measured by the named official station, not heat index or wind chill.
Resolution timing depends on when the official observing agency publishes the hourly data and the platform's processing schedule; the event page or market rules typically describe expected settlement timing.