| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of seven predefined temperature-range outcomes New York City will record at 3:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on March 26, 2026. It matters for participants hedging weather exposure or testing short‑range forecast skill for a specific timestamp.
Late March is a transitional period for NYC, when temperatures can swing between late‑winter cold and early‑spring mildness depending on synoptic patterns. Markets like this let traders incorporate evolving model guidance and new observations in the run‑up to the target time; settlement is based on the official observational dataset and station defined in the contract.
Market odds represent the aggregated market view of which temperature bin will be observed at that timestamp; they should be read as consensus indicators that update as forecasts, observations, and model agreement change.
Settlement uses the air temperature reported by the specific observing station and dataset named in the Kalshi contract; consult the market description or contract rules to see which station and dataset are designated.
Resolution occurs after the designated data provider publishes the observation and after any validation or dispute period defined by the contract; the exact timing depends on the provider's reporting schedule and Kalshi's settlement procedures.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined, non‑overlapping temperature range specified in the market listing; the listing shows the exact boundaries and how they partition the full temperature spectrum for the event.
The contract includes contingency and dispute rules that specify fallback procedures—such as using an alternate nearby official station, an alternate dataset, or delayed resolution—so review the market's contingency language for the precise procedure.
Consider that late March is transitional: climatological normals for the date, recent multi‑week temperature trends, any remaining snow cover, sea/nearshore influences, and how much short‑range forecast models agree as the timestamp approaches.