| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 2pm EDT on March 26, 2026. It matters for traders and market participants who want to hedge or speculate on short‑term weather outcomes and for anyone tracking forecast confidence for a specific date and time.
Late March is a transitional period in the northeastern U.S., so day‑to‑day temperatures can swing depending on the arrival of warm southern air or cold continental intrusions. Coastal proximity, synoptic storm tracks, and cloud cover frequently determine whether a given late‑March day feels springlike or still wintry. Ongoing climate trends have increased average temperatures and can shift baseline expectations, but they do not eliminate large daily variability tied to weather systems.
Market odds represent the collective expectation of traders and will update as new model runs, observations, and local reports arrive; they are not guarantees but real‑time aggregates of available information. Use the market price alongside official forecast products and the market’s settlement rules when forming a view.
Settlement depends on the market’s official rules; exchanges typically specify a named observing station and data source (for example, a National Weather Service/NOAA ASOS or a specific official station). Consult this market’s settlement specification on the platform to see the exact station and data feed that will be used.
Yes: 'EDT' denotes Eastern Daylight Time, the local clock time in New York during daylight‑saving months. Always use the market’s stated timezone and clock when aligning forecasts, model output, or observations to the 2pm target.
The market listing shows the close as TBD; the platform will set a specific close time in the market details. Exchanges often stop trading shortly before the settlement observation to prevent trading on the settled value, so check the market page for the official cutoff.
Short‑term model updates and observations can materially change expectations in the hours leading up to 2pm. Traders will react to the latest guidance and surface reports; the actual temperature outcome depends on the real atmospheric conditions at the observation site at 2pm, including any late‑arriving front or mesoscale feature.
Historical climatology provides a baseline seasonal expectation for late March but does not predict the synoptic‑scale pattern that will prevail on this specific date. Use climatology as context and combine it with current model forecasts, recent trends, and the market’s evolving prices to form a well‑rounded view.