| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 2:00 AM EDT on March 26, 2026; it matters for traders hedging weather exposure and for anyone tracking short-range forecast accuracy around that specific time.
Late March in New York is a transition period with rapid swings possible between cold air intrusions and mild maritime influence, so temperatures can vary considerably from day to day. Synoptic storms, onshore flow from the Atlantic, and the urban heat island all affect nighttime readings and make this a useful timestamped weather contract.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation for the official observed temperature at the specified time and are best read as real-time consensus that updates as new forecasts and observations arrive. Outcomes correspond to predefined temperature bins listed in the market rules, and only the bin containing the official observation will pay out.
The event uses 2:00 AM EDT on March 26, 2026, which is New York local time (Eastern Daylight Time).
The contract will specify a designated official source and station in the market rules on Kalshi (commonly an NWS/NOAA station or a specified airport METAR); traders should consult the market page for the exact source and any fallback procedures.
The seven outcomes are mutually exclusive temperature bins with precise numeric boundaries listed in the market description; the outcome whose bin contains the official observed temperature at the designated time and source is the winning outcome.
The market close is listed as TBD on the event header, so check the live market page for the closing time; settlement will occur after the official observation is published and after any dispute or averaging window defined in the contract rules has passed.
Examine historical temperatures for NYC at 2:00 AM in late March, recent climatology from NOAA/NCEI, and short-range NWP model runs and local NWS forecasts for the 24–72 hour window before March 26, 2026; combine climatology with current model trends and the specified settlement station to form an informed view.