| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be on March 26, 2026 at 1:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time. Temperature outcomes are of interest to weather traders, energy schedulers, event planners, and anyone hedging short-term weather exposure.
Late March is a transitional period for NYC weather with large swings possible from warm spring days to chilly, late-winter conditions; synoptic-scale systems and coastal influences both matter. Prediction markets for single fixed timestamps distill current model guidance, satellite/radar trends, and local observations into tradeable views that can update rapidly as forecasts and observations evolve.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation of traders about which discrete temperature outcome will be closest to the actual observation at the specified time and place. Use odds to gauge consensus and how beliefs change with new model runs and real-time observations, rather than as fixed ground truth.
The market is divided into seven discrete outcome buckets defined by the market listing; consult the event page for the precise temperature ranges that correspond to each of the seven outcomes.
Trading close and settlement timing are determined by the market listing; since the close is listed as TBD, check the market page for updates—settlement typically occurs after the official observation for 1:00 PM EDT is published by the designated reporting source.
The market description specifies the official reporting station or dataset used for settlement (for example, a National Weather Service station or other designated sensor); confirm that source on the event page because settlement will follow that specified observation.
As the event time approaches, high-resolution model updates, radar trends, satellite imagery, and surface observations can change expectations quickly; traders often update positions based on latest nowcasts for cloud cover, fronts, or precipitation that influence daytime warming.
Resolution protocols depend on the market operator’s rules; typically the market will use an alternate official source or wait for a corrected report if available, and disputes or ambiguous cases are resolved according to the platform’s published settlement policy—check the operator’s rules on the event page.