| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 1:00 AM EDT on March 26, 2026, letting traders express expectations for a precise timestamp that matters to weather-sensitive decisions.
Late March is a transitional period in the Northeast, so temperatures can swing quickly between cold and mild depending on synoptic-scale systems, coastal influences, and cloud cover. Markets that settle on a single timestamp are useful for hedging short-term operational exposure (transportation, energy loads, events) and reflect the collective signal from forecasts, observations, and trader information. The market offers seven discrete outcomes; consult the event page for the exact bin boundaries and settlement rules.
Market odds summarize trader consensus based on available information but are not guarantees; treat them as one input alongside official forecasts and observational data. For planning, combine market signals with meteorological model output and local knowledge.
The event resolves to the temperature at 1:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on March 26, 2026; check the contract terms on the event page for any specification about averaging windows, rounding, or sub-second rules.
The platform uses the authoritative data source specified in the contract terms on the event page; common choices include an official NOAA/NCEI station (e.g., Central Park, an airport ASOS) or another named meteorological dataset—verify the 'source' field before trading.
The seven outcomes are contiguous temperature ranges (bins) that partition all possible values; when settlement occurs, the bin that contains the official observed temperature is the single winning outcome.
Forecast confidence for a specific hourly snapshot typically improves substantially within 48–72 hours as short-range models and mesoscale ensembles refine timing and local details; expect less certainty weeks in advance and more usable guidance in the days immediately before the timestamp.
Yes—station siting, elevation, nearby buildings, pavement, and localized wind sheltering can produce measurable differences; if that matters to your exposure, examine the contract's specified station metadata and nearby observation records.