| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range New York City will record at 12:00 PM EDT on March 26, 2026; it matters for traders, event planners, utilities, and anyone with weather-sensitive exposure that day.
Late March in New York sits in the transition from winter to spring, so day-to-day temperatures can swing substantially depending on synoptic patterns. Long-term climate trends have nudged seasonal baselines, but the exact noon temperature on a particular date is driven mainly by short‑term weather systems and local conditions.
Market prices act as a real-time summary of collective expectations based on available forecasts and participant positions; they update as new model runs, observations, and local reports arrive.
The contract's resolution source and station/dataset are specified in the market rules on the event page; settlement will use the official observation recorded for 12:00 PM EDT on March 26, 2026 from that specified source. If the resolution source is not visible on the summary, open the contract details to find the nominated dataset and station.
After the nominated data provider publishes the 12:00 PM EDT observation, the platform will compare that value to the outcome ranges and declare the single matching outcome as the winner; final settlement follows the platform's verification procedures and may take some hours to a few days depending on data availability and any dispute windows.
Each outcome corresponds to a pre-defined temperature range listed on the market page; at settlement the observed temperature is checked against those mutually exclusive ranges and whichever range contains the observed value is the winning outcome.
Historical late‑March observations provide context on variability and the range of plausible conditions (e.g., some years are still wintry while others are already mild), but because synoptic conditions dominate individual dates, history is a guide rather than a determinant—combine it with current model forecasts as the date approaches.
Traders commonly watch global models (ECMWF, GFS), regional/short‑range models and convection‑allowing runs, ensemble spreads, NWS local forecasts, METAR/surface observations from area stations and airports, and real‑time radar and satellite updates; convergence among those sources generally increases confidence in a particular outcome.