| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the observed air temperature in New York City will be at 11:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on March 26, 2026. It matters because short-term weather outcomes affect energy use, transportation, and event planning and are useful signals for trading based on meteorological forecasts.
Late March in New York City is a transitional period with large day-to-day variability driven by the timing of spring cold fronts, coastal influences, and jet-stream patterns. Forecasts for a single hour combine large-scale model guidance, local mesoscale effects, and real-time observations; markets aggregate those signals into traded prices. For settlement, exchanges typically rely on a specific official observing station or a named data source—check the event rules for which source will be used.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation about which temperature range will be observed at the specified time, not a deterministic prediction; odds will move as new model runs, observations, and local trends arrive. Use odds as a real-time summary of market participants’ updated views, and consult the event’s settlement rules to understand exact outcome boundaries and the reporting station.
The event’s settlement rules specify the exact observing station or dataset (for example, a designated NOAA/NWS ASOS/METAR site or a specific airport/park station). Always check the event description or official rules to confirm which source will be used for settlement.
Yes—'11:00 PM EDT' refers to New York local time on March 26, 2026 with Eastern Daylight Time in effect; the timestamp should be interpreted as that local time at the named location.
The exchange will set a closing time for trading; it may close at or before the observation time or remain open until settlement is finalized. Because this field is listed as TBD, check the exchange’s marketplace page for the announced trading cut-off.
Outcomes are typically discrete temperature ranges or exact bins listed in the market description; the event rules explain whether endpoints are inclusive or exclusive and how measurements that fall exactly on a boundary are settled. Review those rules to know which outcome corresponds to a given reported temperature.
Climatology provides a baseline expectation for late-March conditions and seasonal variability, but single-hour outcomes are often dominated by short-term synoptic and mesoscale weather. Use climatology as context for how unusual an outcome would be, while prioritizing recent model guidance, surface observations, and frontal timing for short-term predictions.