| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 11:00 AM EDT on March 26, 2026. It matters for short-term weather risk, operational planning, and anyone hedging temperature-sensitive exposure for that specific hour.
Late March is a transition period in the northeastern U.S., so temperatures can swing widely from winter-like to mild spring conditions depending on synoptic-scale systems. Long-term climatology gives a baseline for expected values, but day-to-day outcomes are driven by transient fronts, coastal influences, and cloud/precipitation patterns.
Market odds are a real-time aggregation of participants' expectations about which temperature range will be observed at the specified date and time. Treat them as a dynamic summary of forecast consensus and new information rather than a definitive forecast.
Resolution uses the temperature reported for 11:00 AM EDT on March 26, 2026 from the data source specified in the event rules; the market is resolved once that official observation is available and processed per the platform's resolution procedures.
The exact station or dataset is specified in the event's rule text on the market page — commonly an official national meteorological observation (for example, an ASOS/COOP station or an NWS-verified observation). Consult the event page to see which site or dataset is authoritative for resolution.
They are seven mutually exclusive temperature ranges that together cover the plausible values for the reported temperature; the market page lists the precise numeric boundaries for each outcome and which range wins given the official observation.
Resolution follows the numeric precision and rounding conventions of the designated data source and the platform's rulebook; those rules explain whether values are rounded to the nearest degree, tenth, or handled differently and how ties or missing data are treated.
Key developments include the timing and strength of frontal passages, coastal low formation, cloud/precipitation trends on the morning of the 26th, abrupt shifts in synoptic-scale pattern, and any changes in forecast model guidance or observational corrections from the reporting station.