| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range New York City will record at 10:00 PM EDT on March 26, 2026; it matters for short-term weather risk, event planning, energy demand, and local operations that depend on nighttime temperatures.
Late March in NYC is a transitional period between winter and spring, so temperatures can swing quickly depending on synoptic-scale systems, Arctic intrusions, or early-season warmups. Local influences such as the urban heat island, proximity to the Atlantic, cloud cover, and recent surface wetness further modulate nighttime readings. Forecasts for a specific hour combine model guidance with very recent observations and tend to be more reliable in the 1–3 day window than at seasonal leads.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which discrete temperature bucket will apply at the specified time and location, synthesizing model guidance, observations, and trader judgment; they are not official observations but a real-time consensus signal.
The contract’s settlement data source and station (for example a specific NWS/ASOS/METAR station or Central Park sensor) are defined on the market page; check the settlement provisions there to see the primary station and any backups.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature bin as specified in the market description; the exact numeric boundaries (and units) are listed on the market page, so review that table before trading.
This event’s close time is shown on the market listing (here it is listed as TBD); exchanges commonly close markets a short interval before the official observation or at a time specified in the contract, so monitor the market page for the final close.
The contract specifies whether settlement uses an instantaneous observation at 10:00 PM, a short-minute average around that time, or the nearest recorded minute; consult the settlement rules on the market page for the precise measurement method.
The market’s settlement provisions describe fallback procedures—for example using a backup station, the nearest valid observation, or adjudication by the exchange—so review those rules to understand how missing or questionable data will be resolved.