| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 10:00 AM EDT on March 26, 2026; it matters for traders, weather-dependent businesses, and anyone tracking short-term climate and weather risk. Outcomes let participants take positions on specific temperature ranges at that precise time.
Temperatures in late March in New York City are influenced by the transition from winter to spring, producing high day-to-day variability and occasional warm or cold spells. Short-range weather models, synoptic-scale systems (fronts, coastal lows), and local effects such as the urban heat island each play important roles; longer-term trends like seasonal patterns and climate change affect averages and extremes but do not determine a single day's value. The market’s contract description will specify the official measurement source, unit (°F or °C), rounding, and exact observation location used to resolve the event.
Market prices (odds) reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about that specific measurement and update as new observations and forecasts arrive; interpret prices as market-implied consensus, not guaranteed outcomes. Always check the exchange’s resolution rules and the contract’s official data source before trading.
The contract will name the official data source and station (for example, a National Weather Service or NOAA observational site) that will be used for settlement; consult the market’s contract details to see which station, dataset, and reporting standard govern resolution.
Resolution occurs once the specified official observation for that date/time is published and verified according to the exchange’s rules; the contract description explains any verification window and the procedure for posting settlement results.
The market splits the possible temperature range into seven mutually exclusive buckets defined in the contract; the winning outcome is the bucket that contains the officially reported temperature according to the contract’s unit and rounding rules—check that specification to know the exact boundaries.
The event uses the time zone stated in the contract (EDT), so convert any local or international times accordingly; because the date falls during the period when Eastern Time is on daylight saving for 2026, 10:00 AM EDT is the correct local clock time for resolution as specified.
Track evolving model forecasts (especially ensembles), surface and upper-air observations, frontal and coastal storm watches, overnight temperature trends, cloud cover forecasts for the morning, and any updates to the contract’s resolution or observation source; these inputs will materially affect the market as the event approaches.