| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 9:00 AM EDT on March 25, 2026, and matters for weather-sensitive decisions and short-term forecasting evaluation. It provides a way to aggregate expectations about a specific, time-stamped observation.
Late March in New York City is a transitional period with large day-to-day variability driven by passing synoptic systems, sea-breeze effects, and urban influences. Seasonal climatology gives a baseline expectation but individual events are strongly shaped by the presence or absence of coastal fronts, cold air intrusions, or low-pressure systems. Local measurement location (Central Park vs. airport sites) and station practices can also affect the reported value.
Market odds reflect the collective judgment of traders and update as new forecasts and observations become available; they should be read as a real-time expression of expectations rather than a fixed truth. Use movements in the market alongside independent forecast products to understand shifting evidence.
The event's contract specifies the official observation source and station used for settlement; check the event page for that named data provider and station. If the source is not obvious, consult the platform's settlement rules or contact support for clarification.
Settlement is based on the official observation timestamp that matches 9:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on March 25, 2026; ensure you account for EDT rather than EST and verify the timestamp convention used by the chosen data source.
The event page lists each outcome label and its exact temperature range or bucket boundaries; settlement assigns the official observation to the single outcome whose defined range contains that recorded value.
Boundary and rounding conventions are governed by the market's settlement rules, which are published on the event page or platform terms; those rules explain how ties, decimals, and rounding are handled for final settlement.
Monitor official NWS forecasts and observations for NYC stations (e.g., Central Park, JFK, LaGuardia), high-resolution short-range models (HRRR, rapid-refresh systems), global guidance (ECMWF, GFS), radar and satellite for cloud/precip timing, and local mesonet or airport reports for station-specific conditions.