| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which temperature range New York City will record at 8:00 AM EDT on March 25, 2026; it matters to traders and observers interested in short-term weather outcomes during a seasonally variable period.
Late March in NYC is a transitional time with frequent swings driven by passing fronts, coastal influences, and residual cold-air intrusions, so morning temperatures can vary substantially year to year. Forecast accuracy improves as the event approaches because short-range numerical weather prediction models, local observations, and ensemble outputs tighten around likely outcomes. The market offers seven discrete outcomes (temperature bins) and currently lists the close time as TBD on the exchange.
Market prices indicate the collective market view of which temperature bin is most likely to be observed at the specified time; use them as a summary of marketplace expectations rather than a deterministic forecast.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; the exchange will publish the official trading close and any last-trade deadlines on the Kalshi contract page—check there for updates.
The contract's resolution rules on Kalshi specify the official data provider and measurement site; typical choices are National Weather Service/NOAA surface observations at a designated NYC station—consult the event's resolution details to see the exact source.
They represent seven contiguous temperature intervals (bins) defined by the contract; each outcome corresponds to a specific range and endpoints as shown on the event page.
Resolution follows the contract's missing-data policy: exchanges typically use the nearest valid observation within a prescribed window or an official revised dataset—review the market's resolution rules on Kalshi for the exact procedure.
Deterministic models and climatological guidance provide useful indications a week out, but uncertainty remains high until the short-range (48–72 hour) model runs and local observations converge; ensemble forecasts and continuous observation updates are most informative in the final few days.