| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range New York City will register at 7:00 AM EDT on March 25, 2026; it matters to short-term energy, transportation, and event planning decisions that are sensitive to morning temperatures.
Late March in New York City sits in a transition season with strong year-to-year variability: a single synoptic pattern can produce near-winter cold or unseasonable warmth. Long-term climate trends have shifted seasonal averages, but day-to-day outcomes are dominated by weather systems, frontal timing, and local effects such as urban heat island and coastal influence.
Market prices reflect the collective beliefs of traders about which temperature outcome will be observed at the specified time and are updated as new model data and observations arrive. Use prices as a real-time, aggregated signal of expectations rather than a guarantee of the observed value.
The contract's official settlement rules (on the market page) specify the exact data source and station used for settlement; check that document to confirm whether an NWS ASOS/COOP station, a Central Park observation, or another designated source is the official reference.
Closing time is listed on the market page (currently TBD); markets typically close at a specified time before the observation to prevent trading on immediate, local observations—refer to the market's stated close time for the definitive answer.
The market's settlement rules describe fallback procedures (for example, use of an alternate official station, nearest available official report, or an official NWS post-analysis); review those rules for the precise hierarchy of sources and adjudication methods.
Settlement depends on the specified data source; most official surface temperature records used in contracts are 2-meter air temperatures from standard meteorological stations—confirm the instrument and units in the market's contract language.
Late model runs, real-time surface and upper-air observations, satellite/radar updates showing cloud cover or precipitation, and any last-minute frontal timing adjustments or mesoscale features (sea breezes, drainage flows) will be key drivers of price changes in the run-up to the observation.