| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the observed air temperature in New York City will be at 6:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on March 25, 2026. It matters because early-morning temperatures affect energy demand, transportation, public safety and short-term weather hedging.
Late March is a transitional period in the northeastern U.S., with frequent swings between colder and milder air depending on the timing of frontal systems, coastal flow, and synoptic-scale patterns. Local factors such as urban heat island effects, proximity to the Atlantic, and recent snow or rain can shift overnight temperatures across different parts of the city. The contract resolves to an official observation source specified by the market, so check those settlement details before trading.
Market odds are a real-time expression of collective expectations about the temperature at the specified time and update as forecasts and observations change. Treat prices as signals about consensus forecasts, not guaranteed outcomes.
The market contract specifies the official data source and station used for settlement—check the market page for that field. If the contract text is unclear, the exchange will identify the primary official meteorological observation (typically an NWS/NOAA station or other designated observing site) that will be used.
It refers to 6:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time (UTC−4) on March 25, 2026. For coordination with UTC timestamps, 6:00 a.m. EDT corresponds to 10:00 UTC on the same calendar day.
The market page lists the outcome labels and their corresponding temperature ranges or values; those mappings are fixed for the contract. Review the outcome definitions on the market page before trading so you understand how an observed temperature will be categorized.
Settlement timing follows the exchange's verification procedures: the official observation must be obtained and any necessary validations completed. Settlement is typically published after the observation is available and data are verified, which may take a short number of days depending on the exchange's rules.
Watch short-range numerical weather model runs and ensembles (e.g., GFS, ECMWF), updated National Weather Service forecasts and discussions, regional surface observations and airports, satellite/radar for frontal timing, and forecast guidance on cloud cover and winds that influence overnight cooling.