| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 5:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on March 25, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive decisions like energy dispatch, travel planning, and short-term risk management.
Late March in New York is a shoulder-season period with strong day-to-day variability: cold snaps and early warm spells are both possible. Climatological normals provide a baseline, but synoptic weather systems and recent trends in seasonal temperatures can produce meaningful departures from long-term averages.
Market prices represent the collective expectation about the specified measured temperature and update as forecasts and observations evolve; use them as a real-time consensus signal rather than a guarantee.
The market will settle to the official observation specified in the event's resolution rules; check the event page for the designated data source and station (the exchange’s rules will name the specific observation location used for settlement).
The event page lists the market close time (here noted as TBD), so confirm that before trading; settlement happens after the specified official data provider publishes the hourly 5:00 AM EDT observation and any short processing window the market rules allow.
Yes — March 25, 2026 falls during Eastern Daylight Time, so the target time is 05:00 EDT (UTC−4). Convert from your local timezone accordingly when planning trades.
Compare the outcome to late-March climatological normals for the specific resolving station (commonly 1991–2020 or 1981–2010 normals), recent year-to-year variability for late March, and notable anomalous years with late-season cold snaps or early warm spells.
Short-range deterministic and ensemble guidance (e.g., ECMWF, GFS, regional NAM and high-resolution mesoscale models), updated surface observations, radar/satellite trends, and local NWS forecast products — especially changes in frontal timing, cloud cover, and precipitation forecasts.