| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 4:00 PM EDT on March 25, 2026. It matters because that single-hour observation affects short-term weather risk for energy demand, transportation, outdoor events, and trading strategies tied to weather outcomes.
Late March is a transitional month in the NYC region, where day-to-day temperatures can swing between winterlike and springlike conditions depending on passing synoptic systems. Forecasts draw on numerical weather prediction models, real-time observations, and local factors like the urban heat island and coastal proximity; historical climatology provides a baseline but does not eliminate large departures tied to storms or Arctic intrusions.
Market prices aggregate traders' current beliefs and information about the likely observed temperature; they should be interpreted as a real‑time summary of available forecasts and new data, and compared with official meteorological products and the contract's settlement rules.
The contract's settlement clause names the official data source and station (for example a specified NOAA/NWS station or an approved observing network). Check the contract details on the platform to confirm the precise station, dataset, and any metadata used for settlement.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature band or listed discrete temperature outcome as defined in the contract description. The contract specifies the exact numeric bounds and whether endpoints are inclusive; only the band that contains the official recorded value at 4pm EDT will settle as the winning outcome.
Trading close and settlement timing are set by the contract and platform rules; in this case the close is listed as TBD, so monitor the market page for updates. Settlement will occur after the official 4:00 PM EDT observation is available from the designated data source and any platform-specified waiting period has elapsed.
Settlement follows the value and revision policy specified in the contract. Some contracts use the initial published observation, others use the final quality-controlled value from the named data source; review the settlement terms to see which applies here.
Short-range numerical model runs (deterministic and ensemble), surface analyses showing frontal position, high-resolution boundary-layer forecasts, satellite imagery for cloud trends, and real-time surface observations and airport reports are most influential. As the hour approaches, near-surface temperature observations and trend information tend to dominate market updates.