| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 4:00 AM EDT on March 25, 2026; it matters because short-term temperature affects energy demand, travel conditions, and weather-sensitive planning in the region.
Seasonal transition in late March can produce large swings in overnight lows across the Northeastern U.S., driven by the timing of synoptic fronts, cloud cover, and coastal influences. Local factors such as the urban heat island, proximity to the Atlantic, and any residual snow cover can make NYC temperatures different from regional forecasts.
Market odds represent the collective expectation of traders based on available meteorological forecasts and observations; they update as new model runs, observations, and local data become available and should be interpreted as evolving signals rather than fixed forecasts.
The contract will settle to the official observing station and data source specified in the market rules; check the market description for the exact station (for example, a designated NOAA/NWS ASOS station, Central Park station, or other listed sensor) because different stations can show different values.
The measurement is taken at the local clock time labeled 4:00 AM EDT as stated in the contract; if daylight saving rules are in effect that date, the market uses the EDT timestamp provided in the contract rather than an offset like UTC, so confirm the contract wording for any ambiguity.
Large-scale model guidance and ensemble spreads usually start to narrow several days before the target, while high-resolution and mesoscale guidance and recent observations become most influential in the 24–48 hours before the measurement; short-term changes (front timing, clouds, or coastal winds) can still alter the overnight temperature on the last day.
Yes—differences arise from which station is used for settlement, sensor exposure, elevation, and microclimates; public forecasts often report generalized temperatures for a metro area while the settlement uses a specific instrument reading.
Unexpected warmth can come from thick cloud cover, onshore breezes from the Atlantic, or strong urban heat retention, while unexpectedly cold readings typically result from clear skies, light winds allowing radiational cooling, drainage of cold air into low-lying areas, or recent snow cover increasing radiational loss.