| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 3:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on March 25, 2026. It matters because same-day temperatures affect transportation, energy demand, and weather-sensitive decisions and provide a short-term test of forecasting skill.
Late March is a transition month in the northeastern U.S., so conditions can swing from wintry to mild depending on the position of troughs, ridges, and frontal systems. Forecasts for a specific hour several days ahead are driven by evolving model guidance and real-time observations, so expectations commonly change as the event approaches.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of traders and update as new model runs, observations, and analyses arrive; read them as a consensus signal that can move quickly with new information rather than a guaranteed outcome.
It refers to 3:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (the U.S. Eastern timezone with daylight saving in effect that date, UTC−4). Confirm the platform page if you need an exact UTC conversion for your location.
The market will settle to the specific observational source named on the market page; common sources are an NWS official observation (e.g., a specific weather station or METAR at a local airport) or another named feed. Check the market description for the exact station and data source used for settlement.
The seven outcomes are the discrete settlement buckets defined on the market page (typically temperature ranges or categories). A position in a given outcome pays out if the official observed temperature at the specified station and time falls in that bucket.
Finalization follows publication of the official observation and any verification window the platform requires; that can be hours to a few days depending on the exchange’s settlement rules. The market page or platform rules will state the expected finalization procedure and timing.
Short-lived signals—recent model runs, nearby surface observations, satellite trends, and RADAR showing cloud clearing or an approaching front—can cause rapid price movement in the hours before 3pm because they materially change expectations for the observed temperature at that exact hour.