| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 3:00 AM EDT on March 25, 2026 — a precise, time‑bound weather outcome that matters for short‑term operational decisions, energy demand forecasting, and event planning for that date and hour.
Late March is a transitional month for NYC when large swings between cold and mild conditions are common; synoptic-scale systems, coastal influences, and day‑to‑day variability all matter. Prediction markets for single‑hour temperatures aggregate weather model guidance, near‑term observations, and local climatology into a tradable signal used by traders, forecasters, and institutions managing weather exposure.
Market prices represent the collective expectation about which discrete temperature outcome will occur at the specified date and time and will update as forecasts and observations change; interpret prices as dynamic consensus information rather than fixed forecasts.
The contract resolves to the air temperature at 3:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on March 25, 2026; settlement uses the market's stated measurement time and timezone — verify the market page for the precise settlement timestamp.
The market's settlement rules specify the official data source and station used for resolution; common choices include recognized NWS/NOAA observing sites in the NYC area—consult the Kalshi market page for the exact station and dataset.
The exchange's settlement procedure defines fallback handling (for example, using the nearest hourly observation, interpolation between observations, or a designated alternative station); check the market's settlement terms for the precise method.
Prices can move as soon as new model runs, satellite/radar updates, or surface observations change the expected temperature; the most pronounced adjustments usually happen in the short‑range period when mesoscale features (fronts, coastal effects) become clearer, so monitoring updates in the days and hours leading up to the target time is important.
Compare the market to official climatological records from NOAA/NCEI or local weather station archives for late March to see typical variability and past extremes; remember a single‑hour reading can deviate substantially from monthly averages due to transient weather systems and local effects.