| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on March 25, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive planning, short-term energy and transportation decisions, and for people tracking seasonal patterns ahead of spring.
Late March in NYC is a transitional period when synoptic-scale storms, late-season cold fronts, or early warm spells can each dominate the temperature outcome. Climate trends have shifted baseline seasonal temperatures upward over decades, but day-to-day outcomes remain driven by immediate weather patterns and mesoscale effects around the metropolitan area.
Market odds aggregate traders’ beliefs about the most likely temperature range at the specified time; they reflect the latest public forecasts, model runs, and new observations. Use the market as a real-time gauge of consensus expectations, while checking the event rules for how the outcome is defined and which observing station is used for settlement.
The event specifies 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on March 25, 2026; that is the local time used for determining the reported temperature. In UTC that corresponds to 18:00 on the same calendar day.
Settlement is performed according to the data source and station named in the event's official rules; check the market's settlement details to see whether an airport station, Central Park, or a specific meteorological service is designated.
The seven discrete outcomes each cover an adjacent temperature interval; the market description and rules page list the exact range boundaries and any rounding or measurement conventions used for final settlement—refer to that specification before trading.
The event page indicates the close time as TBD; typically markets close before the observation window and settle after the official observation is published and verified—check the market's timeline and settlement policy for precise timing.
Late model runs and ensemble updates, real-time surface observations, updated satellite and radar analysis, shifts in forecasted frontal timing, and any local observation issues or revisions can all prompt rapid revaluation of the market near the event.