| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the observed air temperature in New York City will be at 2:00 a.m. EDT on March 25, 2026; outcomes let traders express expectations about that specific measurement. It matters because short-term weather outcomes drive local decisions (travel, energy use) and provide a focused test of forecast skill for that exact hour and location.
Late March is a transitional period in the northeastern U.S., when cold-season air masses, early spring warmth, and coastal influences all compete; day-to-day variability tends to be larger than in midsummer. Market interest in a single-hour observation reflects the intersection of synoptic forecasting (large-scale storms and fronts), mesoscale features (coastal and urban effects), and real-time observations that resolve those influences.
Market prices on this contract summarize participants' collective expectations about the official recorded temperature at the specified time and station; they update as new model runs, observations, and local reports arrive. Prices are dynamic indicators of market sentiment and should be read alongside meteorological forecasts and official observation sources listed on the event page.
The contract's rules will specify the official observation source and station used for settlement; consult the event page or rule text for the named reporting station (commonly an NWS first‑order station or a specified airport/park sensor).
The event page shows the official close time (listed as TBD for this listing); settlement occurs after the designated source publishes the official observation for the specified date/time per the contract's settlement rules, so check the event page for the exact settlement procedure and timeline.
Historical climatology for March 25 provides a baseline range and typical variability, but individual years can deviate substantially depending on synoptic patterns; use climatology to gauge typical bounds while prioritizing short‑term model guidance and recent observations for the exact hour.
Traders commonly monitor global and regional models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), high‑resolution and short‑range guidance (HRRR, NAM), ensemble spread for uncertainty, NWS forecasts and discussions, and near‑real‑time surface observations/METARs for last‑mile adjustments.
Overnight radiational cooling, cloud cover changes, onset or cessation of precipitation, shifts in wind direction (bringing maritime or continental air), and microclimate effects (urban heat islands, proximity to water) can all produce meaningful deviations from model guidance for that precise hour.