| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be on March 25, 2026 at 1:00 PM EDT. It matters to traders, event planners, utilities, and weather-sensitive businesses hedging exposure to a specific hourly temperature outcome.
Late March in the New York City area is a transitional period with large day-to-day variability driven by shifting synoptic patterns, coastal influences, and occasional late-season storms. Seasonal warming trends and the urban heat island can bias local readings relative to nearby rural stations, while individual weather systems (cold fronts, warm sectors, nor'easters) often determine whether a day feels wintry or springlike.
Market odds reflect collective expectations about the event given available forecasts and observations; they update as new model runs and observations arrive. Treat market prices as a summary of belief, not an official meteorological forecast or guarantee of outcome.
Settlement will follow the market's specified settlement rules; consult the event's Settlement Details to see which official observing station and data feed (e.g., an NWS/NOAA station or other designated source) are used, including measurement height and timestamp conventions.
Yes, '1pm EDT' refers to local Eastern Daylight Time in New York City; the event's settlement rules define the exact timestamp and whether the value is the observation at that minute, an hourly average, or a nearest-minute reading—check the event page for the precise convention.
The event's outcome labels and boundaries (e.g., temperature intervals or discrete values) are listed on the market page; those definitions determine which outcome covers a given observed temperature and specify any rounding or inclusive/exclusive endpoints used at settlement.
The market follows the dispute and data-adjustment procedures in its rules: typically the primary data source is used first, with backup sources or an adjudication procedure described on the event page if the primary observation is unavailable or later corrected.
Late March is typically a transitional period where both unseasonably cold and notably mild days are possible; traders should monitor multi-day model trends, sea-surface temperatures along the coast, recent pattern persistence, and forecasts of fronts or coastal cyclones that commonly influence temperatures on that date.