| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range New York City will record at 12:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on March 25, 2026. It matters because short‑term temperature outcomes affect energy demand, transportation, outdoor events, and local businesses and can be forecasted with meteorological data.
This is a single‑timestamp, categorical prediction market with seven mutually exclusive temperature outcomes; traders bet on which bucket will contain the official observed temperature at that precise date and time. Late March in New York is a transitional period between winter and spring, so day‑to‑day temperatures often reflect shifting synoptic patterns (cold fronts, warm air advection) and local influences such as the urban heat island and proximity to the Atlantic Ocean.
Market prices represent the collective, real‑time expectation for which of the seven outcome buckets will contain the official temperature at noon on Mar 25, 2026; as forecasts, observations, and new data arrive prices will update to reflect changing information. Consult the market page for exact settlement rules and the definition of outcomes.
The market close time is listed as TBD; check the market page for updates. Settlement typically occurs after the official observation for the specified date/time is published by the designated weather data source, and the platform will announce when settlement is complete.
The platform's settlement rules specify the official data source and station used to determine the temperature; if not stated on the event page, consult the market description or exchange documentation. Common official sources include NWS/NOAA observations, METAR/ASOS stations, or a named urban monitoring site.
The seven outcomes are predefined, mutually exclusive temperature buckets that together cover the plausible temperature range for the timestamp. The outcome whose bucket contains the official reported temperature at 12:00 PM EDT on Mar 25, 2026 will be the winner; consult the event page for exact bucket boundaries.
Short‑range numerical weather prediction model runs, mesoscale ensemble forecasts, satellite and radar updates, surface observations and METAR reports, upper‑air soundings, and near‑term nowcasts all influence traders' expectations—especially in the 0–72 hour window before the event.
Late March is a climatologically transitional month with relatively high day‑to‑day variability; traders should account for both synoptic swings (which can produce sudden cold snaps or warm spells) and the longer‑term tendency for warmer springs when assessing which temperature bucket is most plausible.