| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 12:00 AM EDT on March 25, 2026; it matters for short-term weather hedging, planning outdoor activities, and testing forecasting skill for a specific timestamp. Trading aggregates diverse information about forecasts, observations, and risks relevant to that hour.
Late-March nights in NYC sit in the seasonal transition between winter and spring, so outcomes can swing with passing fronts, cloud cover, and maritime influences. Historical variability is driven by synoptic patterns (e.g., cold air intrusions versus mild onshore flow) and local effects like the urban heat island and proximity to the Atlantic and Long Island Sound. The market’s seven outcomes partition the plausible temperature range at that exact hour to allow trading on discrete bins.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of participants about which temperature bin will be observed at the specified time and location; prices can move as new model runs, observations, and weather developments arrive. Always check the market description for settlement rules and the official data source used for final determination.
Settlement follows the data source and exact measurement rules specified in the market contract on Kalshi; typically that means an official meteorological observation (e.g., a National Weather Service station or specified dataset) for the stated timestamp, with any rounding or tie-breaking described in the contract. Check the market page for the authoritative station or dataset and settlement conventions.
Each outcome represents a predefined temperature range (a bin) covering the plausible values at 12:00 AM EDT on March 25, 2026; the market description lists the exact numeric boundaries and whether endpoints are inclusive. Refer to those labels on the market page to map an outcome to its temperature interval.
The market will close according to the timeline published on Kalshi’s market page (Closes: TBD). Settlement occurs after the official observation for the specified timestamp is available from the contract’s data source, following any delay or verification steps described by the exchange.
The contract’s contingency rules determine settlement in cases of missing or invalid observations—common approaches include using the nearest valid observation, an alternate approved station, or following a specific fallback dataset. The exact procedure is specified on the market’s terms; consult those rules before trading.
Historical climatology provides a baseline expectation for late‑March nights (showing typical seasonal ranges and variability), but synoptic forecasts and recent observations closer to the date usually drive short‑term outcomes. Use climatology for context (what’s typical) and rely on up-to-date model runs, satellite/obs, and surface trends in the days before March 25 to refine expectations for the midnight observation.