| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 11:00 AM EDT on March 25, 2026. It matters for short-term weather planning, energy demand forecasting, and anyone trading weather-linked contracts.
The value at a single hour depends on synoptic weather patterns (frontal passages, cyclones, high/low pressure), local effects (urban heat island, coastal influences), and seasonal transition away from winter toward spring. Historical March variability and broader climate trends (multi-year warming, ENSO phase) provide context for how typical or extreme a given reading would be.
Market odds aggregate traders’ views about which temperature range will be observed at the specified time and location; read contract definitions carefully because settlement is based on a specific observation source, units (°F or °C), and inclusive/exclusive endpoints rather than raw subjective probabilities.
The event’s contract text or settlement rules specify the exact station and data source (for example an NWS/NOAA station, METAR/ASOS, or another listed network). Consult the market page to confirm the designated observing site and provider, because settlement follows that stated source.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature interval (bins) defined on the event page; check whether endpoints are inclusive or exclusive and which units (°F or °C) are used. Your position aligns with the outcome whose interval contains the reported official temperature value.
The page currently lists the close time as TBD; when set, the close time will be listed on the event page. Markets often close before the observation to prevent last-minute information asymmetry, but confirm the exact close time on the contract to know when trading ends.
Settlement follows the single source named in the contract. If multiple sources could plausibly differ, the contract will state which one is authoritative; if not, contact the platform/operator for an official clarification before trading.
Use historical daily-hourly climatology to understand typical ranges and day-to-day variability for late March and 11 AM specifically. Combine that with current season-to-date anomalies and forecast model trends (short-range runs 0–7 days out) to form an informed view—remember to account for local microclimate differences tied to the chosen observing station.