| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the official air temperature in New York City will be at 9:00 PM EDT on March 24, 2026. The outcome matters for traders, weather-dependent businesses, and anyone monitoring late‑March temperature swings in the region.
Late March in New York City is a seasonal transition period when temperatures can swing from near‑winter conditions to noticeably mild nights depending on synoptic patterns. Short‑term drivers (frontal passages, cloud cover, coastal influences) and longer‑term factors (recent air mass trends, urban heat island) both shape the expected reading. The market's seven outcomes represent discrete temperature ranges or bins that partition the plausible values at that timestamp.
Market odds summarize the collective expectations of traders and will move as forecasts, observations, and new information arrive; use them to see how sentiment shifts but consult the contract text for exact resolution rules. They are not a substitute for consulting official meteorological observations for operational decisions.
The contract will specify the official data source (for example a specific NOAA/NWS station or agency observation); check the market's contract text or event rules to see which station or dataset is the authoritative source for resolution.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature bin or exact value range shown on the market page; review the outcome labels on the event interface to see the precise numeric boundaries and their exclusivity.
The market's close time and resolution schedule will be posted on its page (it may close shortly before resolution or at a specified deadline); consult that listing for exact cutoffs and the announced resolution timeframe.
Resolution procedures for missing or invalid observations are defined in the contract rules—common approaches include using the nearest official station, the next valid observation, or a designated fallback dataset—so check the event's dispute and fallback provisions.
Use the most recent short‑term forecasts (0–24 hour model runs), radar/satellite nowcasts, and local observations to update expectations for conditions at 9pm; pay particular attention to frontal timing, cloud cover predictions, and coastal wind trends that could shift the 9pm reading.