| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 9:00 AM EDT on March 24, 2026; it matters for short-term planning (commute, events, energy demand) and for traders updating expectations about spring weather. Accurate forecasting around a specific time and location concentrates information from models and observations into a single resolvable outcome.
Late March in NYC is a transitional period from winter to spring, so temperatures can swing from well below to well above typical seasonal values depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Official settlement will follow the market's specified observing station and measurement protocol; consult the event contract for the precise data source and rounding rules. Climate trends have shifted seasonal baselines upward over decades, but day-to-day variability remains dominated by weather systems.
Market prices aggregate traders' views about which temperature bin or outcome will occur given current forecasts and observations; use those prices as a market-implied summary of available information rather than a fixed certainty.
The event settles to the measurement specified in the market's resolution rules—typically an official National Weather Service or other specified station within NYC. Always check the event contract or resolution section to confirm the named station and data feed before trading.
The market page lists seven mutually exclusive outcomes (usually temperature bins or discrete values). The outcome that contains the official reported temperature at the settlement time (9:00 AM EDT) as recorded by the specified data source will be declared the winner; exact definitions and tie-breaking procedures are in the event rules.
'9am EDT' refers to the time label used by the observing station as defined in the market contract—often the nearest hourly observation at 09:00 local time. The contract will also state how missing or suspect data are handled (fallback stations, alternative data sources, or non-resolution), so review those clauses prior to trading.
Traders rely on numerical weather prediction outputs (short-range model runs), high-resolution nowcasts, surface observations and temperature trends overnight, radar/satellite for cloud cover and frontal timing, and local expertise about microclimates across the NYC metro area.
Historically, late March mornings in NYC span a wide range due to shifting spring patterns—some years are near freezing while others are comfortably mild. Consider recent climatology for March, the season-to-season trend toward warmer springs, and year-to-year variability driven by storm tracks when forming your view.