| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range New York City will report at 8:00 PM EDT on March 24, 2026. It matters for traders and for organizations whose operations or risk exposures depend on near-term temperature outcomes in NYC.
Late March in New York City is a transitional period with large day-to-day variability driven by advancing spring patterns; some years have near-winter readings while others already feel springlike. Climate trends have increased the frequency of unusual warm or cold swings, but short-term outcome is dominated by synoptic weather systems and local factors. This market offers seven discrete outcomes and is listed with closing time marked TBD; total traded volume is zero at posting, indicating the market is new or inactive so far.
Market odds reflect collective expectations based on available forecasts and information and update as new observations and trades arrive. For final resolution, consult the market’s settlement rules to see which official observation source and rounding conventions are used.
It resolves to the air temperature observation for New York City at 8:00 PM EDT on that date as defined by the contract’s settlement source; check the market’s rules to see which dataset and measurement height are used.
The contract specifies the official observation source — often an NWS/NOAA station or a consolidated official dataset — so traders should read the settlement section to identify the exact station or dataset that will be used.
Close time is listed as TBD; markets like this commonly close shortly before the observation time but you should confirm the exact closing timestamp on the market page to know when trading stops.
Boundary and rounding rules are governed by the market’s settlement protocol — many contracts specify rounding conventions (e.g., nearest whole degree) or tie-breaking procedures, so consult the official settlement rules for this event.
Short-range numerical models (e.g., high-resolution hourly guidance), surface observations and trends during the day, radar and satellite for cloud/precip evolution, and the NWS local forecast are all valuable inputs — combine model guidance with real-time observations for the best short-term signal.