| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of seven predefined temperature outcomes will describe the official New York City air temperature at 8:00 a.m. EDT on March 24, 2026. The contract matters to participants interested in short-term weather risk, energy demand, travel disruptions, and local preparedness.
Late March is a transitional month in the NYC region, where day-to-day conditions can swing between lingering cold and early spring warmth. Weather on a single morning is driven by the synoptic pattern (positions of fronts, troughs, or ridges) but sits on top of a multidecadal warming trend that has shifted the seasonal baseline. Seasonal climate drivers (e.g., El Niño/La Niña states) modulate the background but do not determine the exact morning temperature.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations and real-time forecast information; changes in odds reflect new model runs, observations, and participant information. Treat market prices as a probabilistic signal to be used alongside official meteorological forecasts and station metadata rather than as a definitive prediction.
Settlement source, measurement height, and units are defined in the contract terms on the event page; markets typically specify an official NOAA/NWS station or a named airport/park observation. Verify the event rules to see the exact station and definition used for settlement.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; the market operator will publish the trading-closure time in the contract rules. Common practice is to close trading shortly before the observation time or when the settlement source finalizes the reading.
Synoptic-scale forecasts provide useful guidance several days ahead, while high-resolution model runs and local observations in the 24–48 hours before the event give the most actionable detail for an 8am temperature forecast. Expect the strongest forecast updates in the final 1–3 days.
Historically, late March shows large interannual variability: some years have lingering winter conditions, others display mild spring mornings. Traders should consult multi-decade station archives (e.g., local NOAA records) for climatology and typical variability around March 24 to inform prior expectations.
Price moves are commonly driven by new high-resolution model runs shifting frontal timing, last-mile observations (surface and upper-air), forecasted precipitation or snow that changes surface energy balance, and official NWS products (advisories, watches, warnings) that alter perceived outcome likelihoods.