| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be on Mar 24, 2026 at 7pm EDT; it matters because short‑term temperature outcomes affect energy use, event planning, and local weather risk assessments.
Late March sits in the spring transition when large swings between cool and mild conditions are common; synoptic‑scale systems, coastal influence, and day/night timing all shape outcomes. Forecast skill improves substantially in the 48–72 hours before the target time, so market information can move quickly as models and observations evolve.
Market prices reflect collective expectations based on available forecasts and incoming data; interpret prices as the market consensus that updates when new model runs, observations, or surface reports arrive.
Settlement follows the market’s rule text; check the contract for the specified official observation source and station (for example an NWS ASOS/METAR site or a Central Park station). If not specified, the market operator will publish the authoritative source used for resolution.
Closing time is set by the market operator (listed on the contract). Markets typically close before the observation time to prevent trades based on immediate local observations, so review the listed close timestamp to know your last trading opportunity.
Late model shifts in frontal timing, unexpected cloud cover or precipitation, rapid wind direction changes (bringing maritime air), and mesoscale features like coastal fronts or showers can all produce sudden revisions to expected temperatures.
Different official stations and exposure (airfield sensors vs park weather stations vs rooftop sensors) can report slightly different values; confirm which station the contract uses and consider local microclimates, meter siting, and whether nearby precipitation or sheltering may bias readings.
Traders watch global models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), high‑resolution regional and convection‑allowing models, NWS local forecasts and short‑range guidance, real‑time satellite and radar for clouds/precipitation, and surface observations (METAR/ASOS) to refine expectations as the event approaches.