| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 29° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 7:00 AM EDT on March 24, 2026 — a precise, time-bound weather observation that matters for short-term weather risk, event planning, and weather-aware trading.
Late March is a transitional period in the northeastern U.S., so temperatures can swing between winterlike chills and mild spring conditions depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Historical variability around this date means forecasts can change substantially in the days leading up to March 24 as model analyses, frontal passages, and coastal influences become clearer.
Market odds reflect collective expectations about the official temperature observation at the stated time and location; interpret them as a dynamic signal of consensus that updates with new model runs, observations, and weather developments rather than a fixed forecast.
The market settles to the official temperature as defined in the market rules — check the event page for the named observing station and data source (for example an airport station, NWS/NOAA dataset, or another specified weather station) and the measurement protocol used for the 7:00 AM EDT timestamp.
Major synoptic changes such as the arrival of a front or deepening coastal system can alter expectations several days in advance, while mesoscale factors like cloud cover, wind shifts, or sea-breeze effects often change forecasts in the 24–48 hour window before the observation.
Settlement procedures for edge cases are defined in the market’s resolution rules — those rules specify rounding, inclusivity of endpoints, and which source is authoritative, so consult the market resolution section to see how boundary values are assigned to outcomes.
Late March in NYC is climatologically transitional: multi-decade records show both late-season cold snaps and early warm spells, so traders often weigh recent seasonal trends, last winter’s anomalies, and the presence of lingering snow cover or early spring warmth when forming expectations.
Active participants typically include weather traders, professional meteorologists, local observers, institutional hedgers with weather exposure, and informed retail traders — all of whom incorporate public model runs, private forecasts, and live observations into their trading decisions.