| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the official air temperature in New York City will be at 6:00 PM EDT on March 24, 2026. Outcomes let participants express expectations about short‑term weather for a specific place and time, which can be useful for planning and hedging weather exposure.
Late March in New York City is a seasonal transition period with high day‑to‑day variability driven by shifting storm tracks, cold fronts, and moderating solar angle. Historical years show a mix of cool, mild, and occasionally wintry conditions around this date, so forecasts can change substantially in the days leading up to the event. Short‑range forecasting and local observations become more informative as the timestamp approaches.
Market prices aggregate traders' views and publicly available forecast information and will move as new model runs and observations arrive; they are not guarantees of a single outcome. Use the market as a real‑time signal that complements meteorological forecasts and official observations.
The contract rules on the market page specify the official data source and station used for resolution; consult that section for the named observation (for example, a specified NOAA/NWS station or official hourly observation). If the source is unclear on the page, contact the platform's support or check the contract's resolution clause.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature bin or exact value as listed on the market page. At the official timestamp the reported observation is compared to those bins and mapped to the single outcome that contains that measured value; rounding and tie‑break procedures, if any, are described in the contract rules.
The resolution procedure in the contract specifies fallbacks (for example, using the nearest official minute, an hourly observation, or another designated data product). Refer to the market's resolution rules to see which fallback is applied in such cases.
A deepening low or an onshore wind can keep temperatures cooler and bring clouds or precipitation, while a strong high‑pressure ridge or southwesterly flow can warm the city. The timing of fronts, cloud cover at evening, and coastal moderation are especially important in determining the 6:00 PM reading.
Monitor short‑range numerical model runs (e.g., high‑resolution mesoscale models), the latest synoptic model guidance (GFS/ECMWF), National Weather Service forecasts and discussions for NYC, airport METAR/ASOS reports, and satellite/radar imagery. In the final 24 hours, surface observations and nowcasting updates typically provide the most actionable information.