| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 31° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the official observed temperature in New York City will be at 6:00 AM EDT on March 24, 2026. It matters for traders who want to express views on short-term weather around that early-spring date and for anyone hedging weather-sensitive exposures tied to that observation.
Late March in New York City sits in the seasonal transition between winter and spring, a period characterized by high day‑to‑day variability driven by passing fronts and coastal influence. Short‑range numerical weather models and recent observations typically dominate forecasts in the days leading up to the date, while longer‑term climate trends have gradually altered baseline expectations over decades.
Market odds in this contract represent the collective, trade‑driven expectation about the official hourly temperature observation at the specified time; they update as new model runs, observations, and participant information arrive. Treat prices as dynamic signals of expectation, not guarantees of the final settled outcome.
Settlement will follow the exchange's published settlement rules for this specific contract; check the market description and settlement documentation on the market page for the named observing station or official dataset (often an NOAA hourly station). If the market page does not specify, contact the exchange for clarification before trading.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature range or category listed on the market page; review the outcome labels and the exact numerical boundaries there, since settlement awards the single outcome that contains the official observed value at 6:00 AM EDT.
Closing times vary by market; many weather contracts close at or shortly before the observation time, but the specific closing timestamp appears on the market page. After close, the exchange waits for the official hourly observation and then follows its settlement procedure to determine the winning outcome.
Track evolving model runs and ensembles, surface observations around the NYC metro, frontal timing, overnight cloud cover forecasts, precipitation chances, wind direction and speed, and any developing coastal systems—these factors most directly affect the pre‑dawn temperature.
Long‑term warming shifts the background climatology slowly, which can influence baseline expectations, but daily and synoptic variability typically dominate the temperature outcome for a single date; combine climatology with current short‑range forecasts when forming a view.