| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will read at 5:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on March 24, 2026. Short-term temperature outcomes matter for energy demand, outdoor events, and local weather-sensitive decisions.
Late March in New York is a transitional period from winter to spring, so temperatures can swing from cool to mild depending on frontal passages and maritime influence. Forecasts in the days before the target time will incorporate global and regional model runs, surface observations, and recent trends in seasonal variability.
Market odds aggregate real-time information: they reflect what traders collectively expect given current forecasts, observations, and risk preferences. As new model runs and observations arrive, odds typically update to incorporate that information.
The contract's settlement rules specify the official observing station and data source. Consult the event rules on the market page to see which NOAA station or authorized station (for example a Central Park/NYC site or another named station) will be used for settlement.
Yes: March 24, 2026 falls during Eastern Daylight Time under U.S. daylight saving rules, so the contract time refers to 5:00 PM EDT local time in New York City as defined in the event rules.
The event rules specify the unit of measurement used for settlement. Many U.S.-based weather contracts use degrees Fahrenheit, but you should verify the unit listed on the specific market page.
Settlement occurs after the official observing agency publishes the 5:00 PM reading; timing depends on that agency's data release schedule. The market page or settlement section will state when the outcome is finalized following availability of the official observation.
Monitor short-range model ensembles, surface and upper-air observations, radar and satellite trends, and local forecast discussions in the 1–3 days before the event; markets tend to move as high-confidence signals (e.g., a strong front or well-sampled warm-up) become apparent.