| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 31° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks what the official New York City temperature will be at 5:00 AM EDT on March 24, 2026. It matters for traders and weather-aware decision makers because pre-dawn temperatures capture overnight cooling and are sensitive to synoptic and local-scale conditions.
Late March in New York sits in a seasonal transition where a broad range of outcomes is common: cold-air intrusions, late-season storms, or mild air masses can all occur. Long-term climate trends have nudged seasonal baselines upward, but day-to-day values remain driven by short- and medium-range weather patterns such as fronts, the jet stream, and coastal effects.
Market odds aggregate participating traders’ expectations and adjust as new forecasts and observations arrive; use them as a real-time indicator of consensus, not a fixed prediction. Remember to check the market's resolution rules and data source before using odds for decisions.
The contract resolves to the official temperature reported by the data source specified in the market's resolution rules. That source is typically a named official station or an NWS dataset; check the market page for the designated station and the precise measurement method used for resolution.
The market page lists the seven mutually exclusive outcomes (commonly temperature bands or discrete values) and those definitions determine which outcome wins. At resolution the outcome whose defined range or value contains the official observation will be declared the winner.
Resolution in the absence of a valid reading follows the fallback procedures in the contract: this may include use of an alternative nearby official station, a specified final NWS product, or administrative resolution per the market rules. Consult the market's rule text for the exact fallback hierarchy and dispute process.
Five a.m. is typically near the daily minimum temperature for inland locations and sensitive to overnight radiational cooling, cloud cover, and recent frontal passages. In late March, variability is higher than in summer, so the pre-dawn value can differ substantially from daytime forecasts depending on synoptic changes overnight.
Follow deterministic and ensemble runs from major models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS, regional models), NWS forecast discussions and short-range updates, ASOS/METAR station observations near the designated resolution site, radar/satellite for cloud and precipitation trends, and local microclimate forecasts that may affect overnight cooling.