| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be on March 24, 2026 at 4:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time. The outcome is relevant for people and businesses planning weather-sensitive activities, energy demand forecasts, and short-term climate monitoring.
Late March in New York City is a transitional period between winter and spring, so temperatures can swing based on passing fronts, maritime influence, and cloud cover. This market offers seven discrete outcomes (temperature bins) that will be settled to an official observed value at the specified timestamp; consult the market rules for exact bin definitions and settlement procedures.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of participants about which temperature bin will contain the official 4:00 PM observation; they update as new model runs, observations, and local reports arrive. Prices are a real-time signal, not a guarantee of the eventual observation.
The market's settlement rules name the official reporting source; typically this is a designated NOAA/NWS station, airport sensor, or a specific vetted dataset. Check the market rule page for the precise station or dataset that will be used.
The timestamp uses the local label provided (EDT). Convert that to UTC based on the offset in effect on Mar 24, 2026, or consult the market rules for the official time conversion method used for settlement.
Settlement fallback procedures are set out in the market's rules and commonly involve using the nearest valid observation, a quality-controlled hourly dataset, or an official interpolation method. Review the settlement section of the listing for the exact fallback protocol.
Short-range high-resolution numerical models and nowcast systems (mesoscale models and rapid-update products), local surface observations, radar and satellite analysis, and boundary-layer forecasts are most influential in the 48-hour window, because they capture mesoscale fronts, cloud cover, and sea-breeze effects.
Synoptic-scale pattern forecasts (large troughs/ridges, major storm systems) provide useful guidance several days out, but local details that determine the exact hourly temperature—cloud cover, frontal timing, and mesoscale circulations—typically become reliable within 24–72 hours and are pinned down closer to the event.