| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 31° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market forecasts the ambient air temperature in New York City at 4:00 AM EDT on March 24, 2026; outcomes determine which temperature range is observed at that specific time. It matters because overnight temperatures at that hour affect transportation, energy demand, and short-term weather risks for residents and businesses.
Late March in New York City is a transitional period with wide day-to-day variability driven by passing synoptic systems; historical averages are milder than winter but cold snaps are still possible. Long-term climate trends have nudged seasonal averages upward, but individual nights are dominated by short-term weather patterns such as frontal passages, storm tracks, and local radiative effects. The market’s resolution will depend on the specific observing station and official data source named in the market rules.
Market prices aggregate participants’ expectations about which discrete temperature range will be observed at the specified time and update as new forecast information arrives. Treat prices as a live summary of available information rather than fixed forecasts; they change with model runs, observations, and new weather data.
The winning outcome is determined by the official air temperature observation specified in the market’s resolution rules—usually an official NWS/NOAA station or a named local sensor—measured at the standard 2-meter height at 4:00 AM EDT on March 24, 2026.
Trading and settlement timings are governed by the platform’s schedule and the market’s specific listing details; typically trading closes before the event time and settlement occurs after the official observation is published—check the market page for the exact close and settlement timestamps.
The seven outcomes correspond to seven discrete temperature bins or ranges that partition plausible observed temperatures; the market description lists the exact numeric boundaries for each bin and an outcome is selected if the official observation falls inside that bin.
Commonly used sources include official NOAA/NWS stations that represent New York City (such as the Central Park observational site or major area airports), but the definitive source is specified in the market’s resolution rules—consult those rules to know which station will be used.
Watch the latest deterministic and ensemble model runs (e.g., GFS, ECMWF), short-term high-resolution models, real-time satellite and radar for cloud/precip changes, surface observations and trends at local stations, frontal timing forecasts, wind forecasts affecting onshore cooling, and any updates on snow or ground conditions that influence nighttime temperatures.