| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which temperature range New York City will register at 3:00 PM EDT on March 24, 2026; it matters for traders, energy managers, event planners, and anyone sensitive to short-term weather outcomes. The market is structured with seven mutually exclusive outcomes that together cover the possible temperature range.
Late March in New York City is a seasonal transition period with high variability—conditions can swing from unseasonably cold to notably mild within days. Forecasts rely on numerical weather prediction models, surface observations, and synoptic-scale features; long‑term climate trends have shifted baseline expectations but do not remove day‑to‑day variability. This market resolves to a single authoritative observation defined by the contract's settlement rules.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of participants about which temperature bin will be observed at the specified time and location; they update as new forecasts, observations, and information arrive. Treat prices as a dynamic signal of market sentiment and information rather than fixed probabilities.
Settlement uses the authoritative source specified in the contract—typically an official National Weather Service or NOAA surface observation at a named NYC station. The market page and contract text list the precise station and any instrument/averaging rules; consult those settlement details for the definitive answer.
The market lists its close time on the platform; in this case the close time is TBD, meaning it will be posted by the exchange. Exchanges sometimes close markets hours or minutes before the observation to allow settlement processes; check the market page regularly for the posted trading close and any updates.
The seven outcomes are mutually exclusive temperature bins that together span the plausible range for the observation. Exact bin boundaries, rounding conventions, and whether values fall on boundaries go to a specific outcome are defined in the contract’s resolution rules—refer to those rules to see the labeled ranges.
Monitor model runs (deterministic and ensembles) for consistency and spread, watch short‑term observations and radar/nowcasts in the 48–72 hours prior, and update views as frontal timing, cloud cover, and precipitation forecasts change. Pay attention to model agreement and recent bias for the applicable stations.
Late March typically sits in a transition from winter to spring, so historical analogs include both late‑winter cold snaps and early‑spring warmth; interannual patterns (e.g., recent warm years) and synoptic drivers provide useful context. Use climatology for late March and recent multi‑year records as baselines, then layer in current-season weather patterns to form expectations.