| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 3:00 AM EDT on March 24, 2026; outcomes let participants trade on how weather will be at that specific time. Accurate short-term temperature forecasts are useful for energy, transport, and event planning and provide a focused test of meteorological prediction.
Late March is a seasonal transition period for NYC, so temperatures can swing between cool and mild depending on synoptic-scale systems. Year-to-year variability and the timing of fronts, cloud cover, and onshore flow often drive whether a given night is unusually warm or cold compared with climatological expectations. Market settlement depends on the exchange's published data source and rules rather than on broader climate trends.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of traders and evolve as new weather observations and model forecasts arrive; they are not fixed measures of historical climatology. For final resolution, always consult the market's settlement documentation to see which observing station and measurement method will be used.
Settlement uses the data source and station specified in the market's settlement rules; check the market page or exchange rulebook for the named observing site (for NYC markets this is often an official NWS/ASOS station or a specified Central Park measurement).
The market's settlement text defines the measurement method — many markets use the official observation nearest to 03:00:00 EDT or a short-window average; confirm the exact method on the market's rule/settlement page.
The exchange's settlement rules will specify a primary station or data feed; if multiple sources are mentioned the contract will state tie-breaking or averaging procedures — consult those rules for this event's resolution method.
Yes — any local factors (snow cover, localized convective showers, sudden cloud changes, or urban microclimates) that alter the observed temperature at the specified time will affect which outcome resolves, but they do not change the settlement methodology.
The event's 'Closes' timestamp is listed as TBD; the exchange will publish the official close time on the market page and via platform notifications — monitor the market listing for the confirmed close and any updates.