| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be on Mar 24, 2026 at 2pm EDT. It matters for short-term weather risk management, event planning, and for market participants testing how forecasts translate into traded expectations.
Late March in NYC is a transitional period between winter and spring, so temperatures can swing quickly depending on the passage of frontal systems, nor'easters, or warm surges from the south. Short-range numerical weather prediction, local mesoscale effects, and the city’s urban microclimates all combine to determine the observed temperature on a given afternoon.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s view about which temperature range will be observed and update as new forecasts and observations arrive. Use price movement and volume as signals of consensus shifts rather than absolute certainties.
Check the contract rules on the event page for the official measurement station and protocol; exchanges commonly use an observed hourly temperature from a specified National Weather Service or official surface station in New York City and list tie‑breaker or data-source procedures if the primary record is unavailable.
Outcome bins are predetermined on the event page and partition the possible temperature values into mutually exclusive ranges; consult the market description to see the exact lower/upper bounds and how decimals or rounding are handled for settlement.
Price-relevant information arrives on multiple timescales: synoptic model updates (several times daily) adjust multi-day expectations, while high‑resolution and mesoscale models and near‑real‑time observations (within 24–48 hours, and especially within the last 12 hours) typically drive the largest short-term price moves.
Use climatology as a baseline to understand typical variability for late March, but account for interannual variability and recent seasonal trends; historical averages indicate what is typical, while current-year model guidance and recent weather patterns determine the specific forecast for Mar 24.
The contract’s settlement rules describe procedures for missing or revised data—common approaches include using an alternate specified station, using the closest valid observation time, or following the designated official agency’s revised value; check the market’s settlement policy for the exact process.