| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 2:00 AM EDT on March 24, 2026; it matters for traders, short-term weather planning, and operational decisions tied to overnight conditions.
Late March in NYC is a transitional month when nights can still be chilly or relatively mild depending on synoptic-scale patterns and coastal influences. Short-term numerical weather prediction runs, surface observations, and mesoscale features (sea breeze, urban heat island) will drive day-to-day variation as the date approaches.
Odds in this market summarize the collective view of participants about which temperature outcome will occur and update as forecasts and observations change; treat them as a real-time signal combining model output, observations, and trader expectations rather than a definitive forecast.
The market's contract terms name the authoritative data source and station used for settlement; check the event/contract page to see whether it references a specific National Weather Service station, an airport observation, or another designated provider.
Settlement methodology is defined in the contract: some markets use the official hourly observation timestamp, others use a specific instant or a short averaging window—verify the event rules to see which applies here.
It can matter noticeably—stations differ by elevation, distance from water, and urban heat effects—so the named settlement location determines which local microclimate governs the final result.
This event currently lists 'Closes: TBD'; commonly markets close at or shortly before the measurement time to avoid last-second information asymmetry, so check the event page for the official trading cutoff.
Consider multi-year late-March climatology for NYC, recent seasonal trends, and how past synoptic patterns produced warm or cold nights—combine that climatology with the latest model forecasts and observations for a balanced view.