| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 1pm EDT on March 24, 2026, which matters for downstream impacts such as energy demand, transportation disruptions, and event planning. Traders aggregate forecasts and local information to express expectations for that precise observation time.
Late March in New York City is a transitional period from winter to spring, so temperatures can vary widely from near-freezing to unseasonably warm depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Forecasts rely on a mix of numerical weather prediction, recent observations, and local effects (coastal influence, urban heat island), and market assessments typically evolve as model runs and observations arrive in the days before the target time.
Prediction market prices represent the collective expectation for which temperature bracket will be observed at 1pm EDT on March 24, 2026 and incorporate forecast model output, observed trends, and trader risk preferences. Because weather forecasts improve closer to the event, market-implied expectations often shift as new data and model runs appear.
The market resolves based on the official temperature observation recorded at 1:00 pm EDT on March 24, 2026; consult the contract rules on the event page for the formal resolution time and any rounding or reporting conventions.
This event uses seven mutually exclusive temperature outcome buckets that cover a continuous range; the event page lists the exact temperature intervals and whichever interval contains the official observation at 1pm EDT determines the winning outcome.
The contract rules on the event page specify the official data source and station (for example, a specified NOAA/NWS observing site or airport station); check the event's resolution source to know which station's 1pm observation will be authoritative.
Deterministic model guidance and short-range forecasts tend to be most reliable within 0–3 days of the target time, while ensemble and trend information become informative a few days earlier; expect forecast confidence to increase as the date approaches.
Late-arriving cold fronts or warm southerly surges, development or delay of coastal storms, unexpected cloud cover or precipitation, and shifts in the track or timing of synoptic systems can all produce rapid revisions to the expected temperature at 1pm on March 24, 2026.