| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 1:00 AM EDT on March 24, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-sensitive stakeholders who want to hedge or express views on a precise, short-term temperature outcome.
Late March is a transitional period in the Northeast: nights can still be cold from continental air masses or noticeably mild if maritime air and cloud cover dominate. Urban effects, recent synoptic patterns, and seasonal trends (including multi-year warming) all influence how that single-hour temperature compares with climatological normals.
Market prices for the listed outcomes reflect the crowd’s current consensus about which temperature bucket will be observed at the specified date, time, and official reporting station; prices update as forecasts and observations change.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature bucket or exact value as defined in the event’s rules; consult the event page to see the exact ranges and units (°F or °C) used for resolution.
The event’s resolution section names the official data source and station (for example an NWS/NOAA station); check that field on the market page because the designated station determines which thermometer reading is used.
The event shows its close time on the market page; if close is listed as TBD, monitor the page for updates. Markets that close before resolution prevent trading on the very last-minute forecast moves, so confirm the posted close time before planning positions.
Use long-term climatology as a baseline to understand typical late-March nighttime ranges, but combine that with current-season trends and short-term weather model guidance—one-night outcomes are highly sensitive to recent frontal passages and mesoscale conditions.
Short-term updates—new model runs, radar observations, and station reports—can materially change which temperature bucket is most likely because overnight temperatures respond quickly to factors like cloud cover, frontal timing, and wind shifts; active monitoring in the day/evening before the market resolves is important.