| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range New York City will record at 12:00 PM EDT on March 24, 2026; it matters for traders and hedgers who need to manage short-term weather exposure or speculate on near-term temperature outcomes.
Late March in New York City is a transitional period with high day-to-day variability driven by shifting air masses and storm tracks. Short-range numerical weather prediction, observational networks, and local effects (coastal influence and urban heat islands) all shape the realized temperature on a given day. The specific reporting station and measurement practices determine the official value used for settlement.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of participants about which temperature range will occur at the specified time and are best interpreted as a real-time consensus signal rather than a definitive forecast.
The winning outcome is the one whose defined temperature range contains the official reported temperature at 12:00 PM EDT on March 24, 2026, as measured by the data source specified on the event page.
The event page identifies the official station and data provider used for settlement (for example, an NWS/NOAA observing station or another accredited source); settlement uses that cited observation at the specified time.
The market close time will be posted on the event page (it is currently listed as TBD); settlement occurs based on the official observation at 12:00 PM EDT on the event date and may require additional verification time per platform rules.
Use multi-year observations from the specific station cited for settlement to understand typical variability on that calendar date; short-term model forecasts and recent synoptic trends are more informative as the date approaches.
Platform contingency rules apply: the market will follow the fallback procedure defined in the event or platform rulebook (common options include using the nearest valid observation, an alternative data source, or a short averaging window); review those rules before trading.