| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 12:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on March 24, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive planning, short-term hedging, and testing how forecasts for a specific hour converge as the event approaches.
The contract defines a single observation in time rather than a multi-day average; outcomes correspond to discrete temperature ranges that the official observation will fall into. Late March in New York is a transitional period with high day-to-day variability driven by synoptic weather systems, so forecasts will typically change as model guidance and observations evolve in the days before the timestamp.
Market prices reflect the aggregated expectations about which pre-defined temperature range will contain the recorded value at 00:00 EDT on March 24, 2026. As new model runs and observational data arrive, odds update to incorporate that information.
The market resolves to the official air temperature value recorded at 00:00 EDT on March 24, 2026 from the data source specified in the contract; check the market page for the named station or dataset and the resolution rules.
The contract specifies the authoritative reporting station or dataset (for example, a National Weather Service station or another named source); the market will resolve to that source's published temperature at the exact timestamp.
Forecast skill for a specific hour improves markedly within the 48–72 hour window, with the highest utility from high-resolution short-range models and local observations in the final 24 hours before 00:00 EDT.
Events that can produce large swings include passage of a cold or warm front, development of a coastal low, changes in cloud cover or precipitation, sudden wind-direction shifts off the ocean versus inland, and any significant changes to surface snow or soil moisture.
Yes: the contract uses 12:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time as the reference. March 24, 2026 is within the U.S. daylight saving period, so resolve to that local Eastern time and convert carefully if you are viewing from another time zone.